Limitations to human livelihoods and well-being in the context of climate change

Diese Arbeit entwickelt zunächst einen Ansatz, der die Quantifizierung der Angemessenheit von Lebensbedingungen für Wohlbefinden und Entwicklung (Adequate Human livelihood conditions for wEll-being And Development (AHEAD)) auf globaler Ebene ermöglicht. Der Ansatz erlaubt es, sektorale Klimaauswirkungen direkt in Beziehung zu den Voraussetzungen für adäquate Lebensbedingungen zu setzen. Weiterhin befasst sich die Arbeit im Detail mit den Themen Wasserverfügbarkeit und menschlicher Gesundheit und zeigt auf, wie regionale und lokale Untersuchungen die Aussagekraft von allgemeinen, globalen Studien erweitern können. Die Ergebnisse des zeigen, dass Wasser als Element von AHEAD eine besonders aktive Komponente des Systems ist, so dass durch Klimawandel bedingte Veränderungen starke Auswirkungen auf das Gesamtsystem zur Folge haben können. Die Quantifizierung von AHEAD zeigt außerdem, dass Wasserknappheit die Lebensbedingungen bereits heute in vielen Regionen limitiert und Auswirkungen des Klimawandels diese Limitierungen weiter verstärken. Die detaillierte Analyse zum Thema Wasser ermöglicht die Ableitung von geeigneten Ansatzpunkten zur Verbesserung der Bedingungen. In einem ähnlichen Ansatz werden die vielfältigen sozio-ökonomischen und natürlichen Einflussfaktoren, die die Auswirkungen von Hitzestress auf die menschliche Gesundheit beeinflussen integriert, so dass die Ableitung relevanter Informationen zur Reduktion von Klimaauswirkungen auf das menschliche Wohlbefinden möglich wird. Eine Verbindung der vorgestellten Ansätze erlaubt es, Aussagen über die Art, die Intensität sowie die räumliche Ausprägung von aktuellen und zukünftigen Einschränkungen von Lebensbedingungen zu treffen.This thesis develops an approach to assess Adequate Human livelihood conditions for wEll-being And Development (AHEAD) on a global scale. The approach allows to relate sectoral impacts of climate change to an integrated measure of livelihood limitations, taking into account important determinants of the society as well as the environment. Additionally, detailed sectoral studies on water availability and human health show how local and regional studies of specific livelihood aspects can complement generic, global assessments and provide an overall indication of the nature, severity and spatial distribution of limitations to human livelihoods. The results show, that water as an element of AHEAD is one of the most active system components. Impacts of climate change on water may have strong indirect effects on livelihood adequacy. The potential impacts of changes in water availability on AHEAD are quantified, showing that water scarcity limits livelihood adequacy in many regions of the world. The utilisation of an ensemble of climate change and water models further allows to assess the relevance of model related uncertainty in this regard. As water availability plays a crucial role for the fulfilment of livelihood needs, the global assessment is complemented by a detailed analysis of the adequacy of water availability for relevant sectors. By taking into account sector-specific determinants, the approach allows to depict limitations in detail, also giving indications as to how water adequacy may be improved. Similarly, the analysis of heatwave impacts on human health provides a methodology to assess the multiple environmental and human influences which affect vulnerability and provides specific information on potential adaptation measures to reduce climate impacts. By identifying the most decisive limiting factors, applicable information on how to most effectively improve human livelihoods is generated

Accounting for socioeconomic constraints in sustainable irrigation expansion assessments

Sustainable irrigation expansion over water limited croplands is an important measure to enhance agricultural yields and increase the resilience of crop production to global warming. While existing global assessments of irrigation expansion mainly illustrate the biophysical potential for irrigation, socioeconomic factors such as weak governance or low income, that demonstrably impede the successful implementation of sustainable irrigation, remain largely underexplored. Here we provide five scenarios of sustainable irrigation deployment in the 21st century integrated into the framework of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, which account for biophysical irrigation limits and socioeconomic constraints. We find that the potential for sustainable irrigation expansion implied by biophysical limits alone is considerably reduced when socioeconomic factors are considered. Even under an optimistic scenario of socio-economic development, we find that additional calories produced via sustainable irrigation by 2100 might reach only half of the maximum biophysical potential. Regions with currently modest socioeconomic development such as Sub-Saharan Africa are found to have the highest potential for improvements. In a scenario of sustainable development, Sub-Saharan Africa would be able to almost double irrigated food production and feed an additional 70 million people compared to 2020, whereas in a scenario where regional rivalry prevails, this potential would be halved. Increasing sustainable irrigation will be key for countries to meet the projected food demands, tackle malnutrition and rural poverty in the context of increasing impacts of anthropogenic climate change on food systems. Our results suggest that improving governance levels for example through enhancing the effectiveness of institutions will constitute an important leverage to increase adaptive capacity in the agricultural sector.Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschunghttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347H2020Peer Reviewe

Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: The case of 1.5 °c and 2 °c

Robust appraisals of climate impacts at different levels of global-mean temperature increase are vital to guide assessments of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. The 2015 Paris Agreement includes a two-headed temperature goal: "holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C". Despite the prominence of these two temperature limits, a comprehensive overview of the differences in climate impacts at these levels is still missing. Here we provide an assessment of key impacts of climate change at warming levels of 1.5°C and 2°C, including extreme weather events, water availability, agricultural yields, sea-level rise and risk of coral reef loss. Our results reveal substantial differences in impacts between a 1.5°C and 2°C warming that are highly relevant for the assessment of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. For heat-related extremes, the additional 0.5°C increase in global-mean temperature marks the difference between events at the upper limit of present-day natural variability and a new climate regime, particularly in tropical regions. Similarly, this warming difference is likely to be decisive for the future of tropical coral reefs. In a scenario with an end-of-century warming of 2°C, virtually all tropical coral reefs are projected to be at risk of severe degradation due to temperature-induced bleaching from 2050 onwards. This fraction is reduced to about 90% in 2050 and projected to decline to 70% by 2100 for a 1.5°C scenario. Analyses of precipitation-related impacts reveal distinct regional differences and hot-spots of change emerge. Regional reduction in median water availability for the Mediterranean is found to nearly double from 9% to 17% between 1.5°C and 2°C, and the projected lengthening of regional dry spells increases from 7 to 11%. Projections for agricultural yields differ between crop types as well as world regions. While some (in particular high-latitude) regions may benefit, tropical regions like West Africa, South-East Asia, as well as Central and northern South America are projected to face substantial local yield reductions, particularly for wheat and maize. Best estimate sea-level rise projections based on two illustrative scenarios indicate a 50cm rise by 2100 relative to year 2000-levels for a 2°C scenario, and about 10 cm lower levels for a 1.5°C scenario. In a 1.5°C scenario, the rate of sea-level rise in 2100 would be reduced by about 30% compared to a 2°C scenario. Our findings highlight the importance of regional differentiation to assess both future climate risks and different vulnerabilities to incremental increases in global-mean temperature. The article provides a consistent and comprehensive assessment of existing projections and a good basis for future work on refining our understanding of the difference between impacts at 1.5°C and 2°C warming

Limitations to human livelihoods and well-being in the context of climate change

Diese Arbeit entwickelt zunächst einen Ansatz, der die Quantifizierung der Angemessenheit von Lebensbedingungen für Wohlbefinden und Entwicklung (Adequate Human livelihood conditions for wEll-being And Development (AHEAD)) auf globaler Ebene ermöglicht. Der Ansatz erlaubt es, sektorale Klimaauswirkungen direkt in Beziehung zu den Voraussetzungen für adäquate Lebensbedingungen zu setzen. Weiterhin befasst sich die Arbeit im Detail mit den Themen Wasserverfügbarkeit und menschlicher Gesundheit und zeigt auf, wie regionale und lokale Untersuchungen die Aussagekraft von allgemeinen, globalen Studien erweitern können. Die Ergebnisse des zeigen, dass Wasser als Element von AHEAD eine besonders aktive Komponente des Systems ist, so dass durch Klimawandel bedingte Veränderungen starke Auswirkungen auf das Gesamtsystem zur Folge haben können. Die Quantifizierung von AHEAD zeigt außerdem, dass Wasserknappheit die Lebensbedingungen bereits heute in vielen Regionen limitiert und Auswirkungen des Klimawandels diese Limitierungen weiter verstärken. Die detaillierte Analyse zum Thema Wasser ermöglicht die Ableitung von geeigneten Ansatzpunkten zur Verbesserung der Bedingungen. In einem ähnlichen Ansatz werden die vielfältigen sozio-ökonomischen und natürlichen Einflussfaktoren, die die Auswirkungen von Hitzestress auf die menschliche Gesundheit beeinflussen integriert, so dass die Ableitung relevanter Informationen zur Reduktion von Klimaauswirkungen auf das menschliche Wohlbefinden möglich wird. Eine Verbindung der vorgestellten Ansätze erlaubt es, Aussagen über die Art, die Intensität sowie die räumliche Ausprägung von aktuellen und zukünftigen Einschränkungen von Lebensbedingungen zu treffen.This thesis develops an approach to assess Adequate Human livelihood conditions for wEll-being And Development (AHEAD) on a global scale. The approach allows to relate sectoral impacts of climate change to an integrated measure of livelihood limitations, taking into account important determinants of the society as well as the environment. Additionally, detailed sectoral studies on water availability and human health show how local and regional studies of specific livelihood aspects can complement generic, global assessments and provide an overall indication of the nature, severity and spatial distribution of limitations to human livelihoods. The results show, that water as an element of AHEAD is one of the most active system components. Impacts of climate change on water may have strong indirect effects on livelihood adequacy. The potential impacts of changes in water availability on AHEAD are quantified, showing that water scarcity limits livelihood adequacy in many regions of the world. The utilisation of an ensemble of climate change and water models further allows to assess the relevance of model related uncertainty in this regard. As water availability plays a crucial role for the fulfilment of livelihood needs, the global assessment is complemented by a detailed analysis of the adequacy of water availability for relevant sectors. By taking into account sector-specific determinants, the approach allows to depict limitations in detail, also giving indications as to how water adequacy may be improved. Similarly, the analysis of heatwave impacts on human health provides a methodology to assess the multiple environmental and human influences which affect vulnerability and provides specific information on potential adaptation measures to reduce climate impacts. By identifying the most decisive limiting factors, applicable information on how to most effectively improve human livelihoods is generated

Supplementary Material to: Determining regional limits and sectoral constraints for water use

<p>Supplementary material to the publication:</p> <p>Tabea K. Lissner, Caroline A. Sullivan, Dominik E. Reusser, and Jürgen P. Kropp (2014): Determining regional limits and sectoral constraints for water use.<br>Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 11, 4695-4727. doi: 10.5194/hessd-11-4695-2014.</p> <p>#################################################</p> <p>Detailed content description:</p> <p>These files contain all results of the single anaylsis steps. Initial input data can be obtained through the sources referenced in the original article.</p> <p>Population data:</p> <p>Population data contains the current and future population per region. For South Africa, scenario values were calculated according to the projected growth rates.</p> <p>- population_indonesia.csv, population_southafrica.csv<br>Total population per administrative units for South Africa and Indonesia for the years 2000 and 2025. Note that values for Indonesia have to be multiplied by 1000.</p> <p>Water availability:</p> <p>ncdf files contain global gridded data on water availability. Filenames indicate the impact model, climate model, RCP scenario, CO2 scenario and variable names. Data on water availability are derived from ISI-MIP simulation. File name conventions follow ISI-MIP the documentation. See also https://www.pik-potsdam.de/research/climate-impacts-and-vulnerabilities/research/rd2-cross-cutting-activities/isi-mip/for-modellers/isi-mip-fast-track/simulation-protocol/simulationprotocol-as-of-2013_04_30_version2.3-1</p> <p>- qtot_cap_ind.csv, qtot_cap_sa.csv<br>Per capita water availability (total runoff, surface and subsurface) for the baseline (1981-2010 and scenario periods (2011-2040) for RCPs 2.6 and 8.5 and two GCMs for South Africa (sa) and Indonesia (ind).</p> <p>RESULTS</p> <p>- all_results_southafrica.csv, all_results_indonesia.csv<br>Result tables contain all fuzzy values and aggregates for South Africa and Indonesia</p

A systematic approach to assess human wellbeing demonstrated for impacts of climate change

Climate change impacts will affect many important societal sectors, with potential negative consequences for human well-being and livelihoods, however an integrated and systematic measure to assess the state of livelihood conditions in this context is not available. At the same time, human livelihoods and wellbeing are an important part of (social) sustainability. Yet, aspects of human needs and well-being within assessments of sustainability are criticised for being arbitrary and incomplete. This paper presents a systematic approach to assess Adequate Human livelihood conditions for wEll-being And Development (AHEAD) on a regional to global scale. Based on an interdisciplinary literature review, we first select a consistent set of elements that allow to describe and quantify well-being and livelihoods. In a second step, we analyze documented associations between the elements to outline climate impact pathways and indirect effects of changes in single system components, using an influence matrix. The novel approach provides an important first step to point towards climate change adaptation measures, which most effectively increase human well-being, while identifying potential unintended side-effects. Even though there are some limitations to assessing well-being and livelihoods on a global scale, a consistent measure of AHEAD is of utmost importance for future sustainability and climate impact analyses

Overcoming gender inequality for climate resilient development

Gender inequalities are reflected in differential vulnerability, and exposure to the hazards posed by climate change and addressing them is key to increase the adaptive capacities of societies. We provide trajectories of the Gender Inequality Index (GII) alongside the Shared- Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), a scenario framework widely used in climate science. Here we find that rapid improvements in gender inequality are possible under a sustainable development scenario already in the near-term. The share of girls growing up in countries with the highest gender inequality could be reduced to about 24% in 2030 compared to about 70% today. Largely overcoming gender inequality as assessed in the GII would be within reach by mid-century. Under less optimistic scenarios, gender inequality may persist throughout the 21st century. Our results highlight the importance of incorporating gender in scenarios assessing future climate impacts and underscore the relevance of addressing gender inequalities in policies aiming to foster climate resilient development.Peer Reviewe

Relating climate compatible development and human livelihood

We explore the link between improvements in human development and greenhouse gas emission. We argue that a disaggregated view on human development is required to understand the potential for decoupling of development from greenhouse gas emissions. To do so, we relate 16 elements from the livelihood index to emissions. Improvements in livelihood are decoupled from emissions for 10 elements, while only 6 are related to significant emissions. We operate the proposed framework for the example of food consumption and related emissions and find a reduction potential of about 13% compared to the total emissions from this sector

Adaptation constraints in scenarios of socio-economic development

Abstract Climate change adaptation is paramount, but increasing evidence suggests that adaptation action is subject to a range of constraints. For a realistic assessment of future adaptation prospects, it is crucial to understand the timescales needed to overcome these constraints. Here, we combine data on documented adaptation from the Global Adaptation Mapping Initiative with national macro indicators and assess future changes in adaptation constraints alongside the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, spanning a wide range of future socio-economic development scenarios. We find that even in the most optimistic scenario, it will take until well after 2050 to overcome key constraints, which will limit adaptation for decades to come particularly in vulnerable countries. The persistence of adaptation constraints calls for stringent mitigation, improved adaptation along with dedicated finance and increasing efforts to address loss and damage. Our approach allows to ground truth indicators that can be further used in climate modelling efforts, improving the representation of adaptation and its risk reduction potential